Global air freight markets are showing signs of stability as Middle East disruptions ease, capacity returns, and fuel prices soften. However, freight rates remain well above historical averages, defying expectations of a significant market correction in the second half of the year.
According to WorldACD, global air cargo volumes fell 5% week-on-week, while average worldwide rates declined by just 2%, indicating that pricing remains resilient despite softer volumes. Meanwhile, the Freightos Air Index (FAX) shows rates have eased from recent peaks but continue to exceed long-term averages.
A key driver behind this resilience is the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. Shipments of high-value cargo such as semiconductors, servers, and data centre equipment are increasingly replacing e-commerce volumes, creating sustained demand for premium air cargo capacity. At the same time, the restoration of Gulf operations and improved network connectivity have eased some supply-side pressures, although selective capacity constraints persist on major trade lanes.
For shippers, the market signals a shift rather than a slowdown. While pricing has become more stable, demand from the technology sector is expected to keep rates firm in the near term. Businesses moving time-sensitive or high-value goods should continue planning shipments early, secure capacity in advance, and remain agile as global trade patterns evolve.
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