More Blank Sailings Expected as Rate Hikes Falter

Container spot rates remained largely flat for the third week, with attempts to raise Asia-Europe rates on 15 November having minimal impact. Drewry’s World Container Index showed a 1% global decline, although Shanghai-Rotterdam and Shanghai-Genoa rates rose slightly to $4,071 and $4,520 per 40ft, respectively.

Despite significant year-on-year increases, forwarders report that recent rate hikes, including 1 December FAK increases by major carriers, are unlikely to hold, given the required 50% spot rate surge. Asia-Europe annual contract negotiations have shifted from a calendar year to a Q1-to-Q1 cycle, with most shippers waiting until after the Chinese New Year (27 January) to finalize agreements.

Meanwhile, carriers announced 70 blank sailings, representing 10% of scheduled departures globally, to manage capacity and sustain rates. Drewry predicts further cancellations and disruptions, with a decline in schedule reliability over the next five weeks.